UAS has been the most dynamic growth sector of the world aerospace industry this decade, according to a report just issued by the Teal Group. The 2011 market study estimates that UAS spending will almost double over the next decade from current worldwide UAS expenditures of $5.9 billion annually to $11.3 billion, totalling just over $94 billion in the next ten years.
“The UAS market will continue to be strong despite cuts in defence spending,” said Philip Finnegan, Teal Group’s director of corporate analysis and an author of the study. “UAS have proved their value in Iraq and Afghanistan and will be a high priority for militaries in the United States and worldwide.”
The study suggests that the US will account for 77% of the worldwide RDT&E spending on UAS technology over the next decade, and about 69% of the procurement. “We expect that the sales of UASs will follow recent patterns of high-tech arms procurement worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific representing the second largest market, followed very closely by Europe,” said Teal Group senior analyst Steve Zaloga, another author of the 458-page study. “Africa and Latin America are expected to continue to be very modest markets for UAS.”
The eighth edition of the sector study, World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems, Market Profile and Forecast 2011, examines the worldwide requirements for UAS, including UAS payloads and companies, and provides ten-year forecasts by country, region, and classes of UAS.
Teal Group analysts already cover the UAS market in their World Missiles and UAS Briefing, which examines the UAS market on a programme-by-programme basis. The sector study examines the UAS market from a complementary perspective, namely national requirements, and includes both a comprehensive analysis of UAS system payloads and key UAS manufacturers.
UAS Payloads
The 2011 study provides 10-year funding and production forecasts for a wide range of UAS payloads, including Electro-Optic/Infrared Sensors (EO/IR), Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs), SIGINT and EW Systems, C4I Systems, and CBRN Sensors, worth $2.6 billion in Fiscal Year 2011 and forecast to increase to $5.6 billion in Fiscal Year 2020. The UAS electronics market will grow steadily, with especially fast growth and opportunities continuing in SAR and SIGINT/EW, according to Dr. David Rockwell, third author of the new study.
“The payload portion of the 2011 study includes many new systems and system types, with expanded coverage of SIGINT/EW and SAR markets,” said Rockwell “Few now question the U.S. Air Force’s claim that ISR is ‘the centre-piece of our global war on terrorism, with production beginning for major endurance UAS systems such as MP-RTIP and ASIP,’ new RDT&E programmes such as wide angle EO/IR systems, and a variety of ground and foliage-penetrating radars, and future development efforts to bring large-aircraft capabilities to small UAS; tactical and mini/micro/nano-UAS will continue to offer some of the best electronics opportunities over the next decade.”
UAS Companies
The study also includes a UAS Manufacturers Market Overview that reflects the worldwide UAS market “continuing as one of the prime areas of growth for defence and aerospace companies,” said Finnegan. The new study reflects the rapid growth of interest in the UAS business by increasing the number of companies covered to some 35 US, European and Israeli companies, and reveals the fundamental reshaping of the industrial environment.
“Smaller companies can successfully compete against larger players, as AAI Corp., Insitu, General Atomics and AeroVironment have all shown,” Finnegan said. “Now the prime contractors are buying the successful smaller companies.” In the past year, L-3 Communications bought Airborne Technologies, a small UAS developer and manufacturer, and VT Group purchased Evergreen’s UAS fee-for-service operations.
As prime contractors and small companies compete in the dynamic UAS market, they are adopting widely different strategies. “Our overview tracks the widely varying approaches being taken by these key companies, ranging from outright acquisitions to teaming arrangements and internal development of new UAS systems,” said Finnegan.
For further details and study availability, contact Teal.